The number of old people in Kent needing long-term nursing care is set to rocket by more than 50% in the next few years – with a huge potential price tag for tax-payers.
Now, Reform UK-led Kent County Council (KCC) is to examine ways to drill down on costs as the service is set for renewal.
New KCC papers show that the number of elderly people in long-term residential care is set to rise from 2,537 to 3,388 (33.54%) by 2030. Long-term nursing care is anticipated to leap from 1,163 to 1,830 (56.68%) in the same time period.
The cost is estimated to be £222m a year.
The council will seek approval to start a formal tender for the recommissioning of the Older People Residential and Nursing (OPRN) care service to begin on 1 April, 2026.
Deputy leader of KCC’s opposition Liberal Democrat, Cllr Richard Streatfeild, blamed the former Tory administration’s “total failure” in addressing the issue sooner.
He said: “It’s absolutely a crisis, it really is.”
Councillors will consider the Older People Residential and Nursing Care Transformation Project to go before them at the Adult Social Care and Public Health cabinet committee next week.
The project sets out ways the current rising costs of providing the statutory service can be contained.
The current contract, introduced nine years ago, operates under the dynamic purchasing system (DPS) which, although flexible, has “led to growing price variation, limited market control, and challenges in monitoring quality and performance”, say the papers.
A new model is suggested where five new service categories “better reflect” current needs – residential, residential high, nursing, nursing high and highly specialised and complex care.
Price variations will be limited by allowing only one change annually.
Social care already consumes more than 70% of KCC’s £1.5bn annual budget.
The surge in the number of people needing residential care is driven principally in Kent by people living much longer than they used to.
The papers state: “Although there is no anticipated budget reduction, continuing with current arrangements would result in a projected budget variance of £50.3m by year four, compared to £8.5m under the new model, representing significant cost avoidance and improved market stability.
“This proposal is informed by lessons learned from previous procurement, stakeholder engagement and relevant impact assessments.
“Council approval is sought to proceed to tender and secure a fit-for-purpose model that delivers sustainable, high-quality care and improved outcomes for Kent’s older population.”
The council recognises that it is not always able to attain the preferred option of keeping people in their own homes.
The papers state: “However, we recognise that this is not always possible; some people will have needs that can only be met in a bespoke accommodation setting, and some people prefer to have their needs met in an accommodation-based setting.”
The document warns that care providers face difficulties in recruiting high-quality staff and retaining them, especially in rural parts of Kent.
It adds: “This emphasises the need to get the pricing right to enable providers to attract and recruit staff in hard-to-reach areas.”
Cllr Streatfeild said: “We have known about this demographic coming down the track at us for a long, long time but the total failure of the last (Conservative) administration is one of the things that will be hung around their necks for a long time to come. It is absolutely a crisis, it really is.”
